A Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models Using Optimized Filtering Algorithms
In this paper, we describe and implement two recursive filtering algorithms, the optimized particle filter, and the Viterbi algorithm, which allow the joint estimation of states and parameters of continuous-time stochastic volatility models, such as the Cox Ingersoll Ross and Heston model. In practice, good parameter estimates are required so that the models are able to generate accurate forecasts. To achieve the objectives the proposed algorithms were implemented using daily empirical data from the time series of the $S\&P500$ returns of the stock exchange index. The proposed methodology facilitates computational calculations of the marginal likelihood of states and allows the reconstruction of unknown states in a suitable way, and reliable estimation of the parameters. To measure the quality of estimation of the algorithms, we used the square root of the mean square error and relative deviation standard as measures of goodness of fit. The estimated errors are insignificant for the analyzed data and the two models considered. We also calculated the execution times of the algorithms, demonstrating that the Viterbi algorithm has less execution time than the optimized particle filter.
The Austrian Journal of Statistics publish open access articles under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License.
The Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY) allows users to copy, distribute and transmit an article, adapt the article and make commercial use of the article. The CC BY license permits commercial and non-commercial re-use of an open access article, as long as the author is properly attributed.
Copyright on any research article published by the Austrian Journal of Statistics is retained by the author(s). Authors grant the Austrian Journal of Statistics a license to publish the article and identify itself as the original publisher. Authors also grant any third party the right to use the article freely as long as its original authors, citation details and publisher are identified.
Manuscripts should be unpublished and not be under consideration for publication elsewhere. By submitting an article, the author(s) certify that the article is their original work, that they have the right to submit the article for publication, and that they can grant the above license.