The Study of the Malaysia's Tourism Arrivals: An ARDL Approach
Malaysia's Tourism Arrivals
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v49i3.1031Abstract
Tourism plays a vital role in the development of country in term of income generation,
foreign exchange earnings and employment opportunity. Plenty of researchers intended
to verify the tourism-led growth hypothesis and investigate the determinants of tourism
growth in Malaysia by using cointegration approach. Their studies however mostly are
based on yearly data and applied traditional cointegration approach such as Johansen's
test. Therefore, this study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and
the Error Correction Model (ECM) Granger causality test to determine the existence of a
long-run relationship between tourism and real exchange rates by applying quarterly data.
Pairwise models are built by using tourist arrivals in Malaysia as a dependent variable
and real exchange rates of dierent countries as independent variables. The results show
that the real exchange rates of China, Singapore and the United States are signicant and
cointegrated with the tourist arrivals. The ECM Granger causality test results indicate
the existence of the long-run bidirectional causality relationships between tourist arrivals
and the real exchange rates of China, Singapore and the United States. The reliability
and validity of the models are conrmed by the diagnostics test and the CUSUM test.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Austrian Journal of Statistics
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
The Austrian Journal of Statistics publish open access articles under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License.
The Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY) allows users to copy, distribute and transmit an article, adapt the article and make commercial use of the article. The CC BY license permits commercial and non-commercial re-use of an open access article, as long as the author is properly attributed.
Copyright on any research article published by the Austrian Journal of Statistics is retained by the author(s). Authors grant the Austrian Journal of Statistics a license to publish the article and identify itself as the original publisher. Authors also grant any third party the right to use the article freely as long as its original authors, citation details and publisher are identified.
Manuscripts should be unpublished and not be under consideration for publication elsewhere. By submitting an article, the author(s) certify that the article is their original work, that they have the right to submit the article for publication, and that they can grant the above license.